Concentration Dynamics in Solar PV Supply Chains: Lessons for Clean Energy Transitions

Abstract

Achieving global climate and energy targets hinges on an unprecedented acceleration in the deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies, which in turn requires a rapid and large-scale expansion of manufacturing capacity across the entire PV value chain. This study examines the structural, economic, and environmental challenges associated with scaling solar PV manufacturing under net-zero-aligned pathways, with particular emphasis on supply-chain concentration, critical mineral demand, financial sustainability, and embodied emissions. The analysis highlights the pronounced geographic concentration of upstream manufacturing, especially polysilicon, ingot, and wafer production, and the resulting exposure to geopolitical, trade, and logistics risks. It further demonstrates that demand for critical minerals, such as silver, is set to rise sharply, increasing the likelihood of supply–demand mismatches amid long mining lead times. In parallel, the sector’s historically volatile profitability and expanding trade restrictions pose additional risks to investment and timely capacity expansion. The paper also evaluates the scale of investment and employment associated with PV manufacturing growth, identifying upstream segments as capital-intensive bottlenecks and downstream segments as key sources of job creation, albeit with declining labor intensity due to automation. Finally, it addresses the potential for supply-chain diversification and power-sector decarbonization to significantly reduce the embodied emissions of PV manufacturing. Overall, the findings indicate that resilient, affordable, and low-carbon solar PV supply chains are a critical prerequisite for sustaining rapid deployment and ensuring the credibility and cost-effectiveness of global net-zero transitions